英汉翻译题库(一)

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  San Francisco
  “San Francisco, open your Golden Gate,” sang the girl in the theatre. She never1 finished her song. That date was 18th April, 1906. The earth shook and the roof suddenly divided, buildings crashed2 to the ground and people rushed out into the streets. The dreadful earthquake destroyed the city that had grown up when men discovered gold in the deserts of California.3 But today the streets of San Francisco stretch over more than forty steep hills, rising like huge cliffs above the blue waters of the Pacific Ocean.
  The best way to see this splendid city, where Spanish people were the first to make their homes, is to take one of the old cable cars which run along the nine main avenues. Fares are cheap they have not risen I’m told for almost a hundred years.4
  You leave5 the palm trees in Union Square --- the heart of San Francisco --- and from the shop signs and the faces around you, you will notice that in the city live people from many nations --- Austrians, Italians, Chinese and others6 --- giving each part a special character. More Chinese live in China Town than in any other part of the world outside China.7 Here, with Chinese restaurants, Chinese post-boxes, and even odd telephone-boxes that look like pagodas, it is easy8 to feel you are in China itself.
  Fisherman’s Wharf, a place all foreigners want to see, is at the end of the ride. You get out, pause perhaps to help the other travelers to swing the cable car on its turntable (a city custom), and then set out to find a table in one of9 the gay little restaurants beside the harbor. As you enjoy the fresh Pacific seafood you can admire the bright red paint of the Golden Gate Bridge in the harbor and watch the traffic crossing beneath the tall towers on its way to the pretty village of Tiberon .
 
  漫步旧金山
   “旧金山,敞开你的金门吧!”剧院里女歌手唱道,可惜她再也没能唱完1。这一天是1906年4月18日,大地震动,屋顶猛地开裂,楼房轰然2倒塌,人们纷纷从屋里逃出,冲上街头。这座城市早在人们于加州沙漠发现金矿起,就兴盛起来,却遭此可怕的地震,毁于一旦(却毁于这场可怕的地震)3。然而,时至今日,旧金山的街道四处延伸(四通八达),遍布四十多座陡峭的小山。那些小山像悬崖峭壁般高耸于太平洋蓝色的海域之上。
  要游览这座西班牙人最早在此落户的绚丽城市,最好的办法是乘坐旧式缆车。缆车穿越九条主大街,收费低廉,据说近百年来一直没涨过价4
  联合广场是旧金山的中心。你从广场棕榈树下向外行5,扫视店铺招牌和周围形形色色的面孔,就会注意到这座城市里居住着来自许多国家的人——奥地利人、意大利人、中国人等等6——这就使每一地段呈现出迥然不同的特色。唐人街住着许多华人,其人数之众超过中国本土之外任何地方7。这里有中国风味的餐馆、中国式邮筒,甚至还有奇异的电话亭,形如宝塔。凡此种种,不费想象8就令你恍若置身中国境内了。
  缆车的终点站是“渔民码头”,海外游客均想一睹为快。你下车后,稍做停留,遵照当地风俗,帮助其他游客推动转车台上的缆车,使之掉头转向,然后移步到码头旁边一家9装饰华丽的小饭馆里找个座位坐下。你可以一边品尝太平洋的海鲜,一边欣赏海港里漆色鲜红的金门大桥,观看林立的高楼之下通往美丽村庄“蒂伯龙”的交通线上络绎不绝的车辆。
 
  ELYSEE PALACE
  The Elysee Palace1 in France enjoys2 equal popularity in the world with the Buckingham Palace in the United Kingdom, the Kremlin in Russia as well as the White House in the U.S.A. It is the residence of the president of the French Republic and the symbol of the supreme authority in France.
  The Elysee Palace, with,000 square meters, is at3 the eastern end of the Champs Elysee in3 the bustling city of Paris proper and backed by a large and tranquil garden of more than twenty thousand square meters. Its main building, quite handsome and graceful, is a 2-story classical stone architecture of European style, flanked by two side buildings facing each other and with an extensive rectangular courtyard in the middle. There are altogether 369 halls and rooms of different size.3 an area of 11
  The Elysee Palace, built in 1718, has a long history of closing to 300 years to date. This house was at first a private residence of a count named d’Evreau, hence it was called Hotel d’Evreau. It had later gone through many vicissitudes and its owners had been changed for many times4, but all the dwellers in it were distinguished personages and high officials. 5 The house was renamed Bonaparte Mansion when6 it was owned by Louis XV and Louis XVI successively when6 they acted as emperors. Napoleon I signed his act of abdication here when6 he had suffered crushing defeat in the Battle of Waterloo in 1815. Napoleon III moved in the Mansion in 1848 when6 he was elected president, and the house became a Royal Palace when6 he proclaimed himself as emperor. The Third French Republic issued a decree in 1873, designating officially the Elysee Palace as the residence of president of the French Republic . Over the hundred odd years since then, almost all the presidents of the French Republic worked and lived there. Starting from 1989, the Elysee Palace is open to the public every year in September on the French Castles Day.
 
  法国的爱丽舍宫
  法国的爱丽舍宫1与美国白宫、英国白金汉宫以及俄罗斯的克里姆林宫一样闻名于世(享有盛誉)2。它是法兰西共和国的总统府,也是法国最高权力的象征。
  爱丽舍宫位于3巴黎香榭丽舍大街的东端,占地3(面积)1.1万平方米地处3喧闹的市中心,背倚一个2万多平方米的恬静大花园。主楼是一座两层高的欧洲古典式石建筑,典雅庄重,两翼各有一座两层高的石建筑,相峙(对)而立(两翼为对称的两座两层高的石建筑),中间是一个宽敞的矩形庭院。宫内共有369间大小不等的厅室。
  爱丽舍宫兴建于1718年,迄今已有近300年的悠久历史。起先这里是一位名叫戴弗罗伯爵的私人住宅,所以当时称为戴弗罗公馆。后来历经沧桑,几易其主4,但长期都为达官贵人5享用。路易十五和路易十六当朝时都先后(相继)入住过,并将6其改名为波旁大厦。1815年拿破仑一世在滑铁卢战役中一败涂地6,曾在此签字退位。拿破仑三世于1848年当选总统6也曾迁居于此,他一称帝6此处即成为皇家宫殿。法兰西第三共和国于1873年颁布法令,正式指定爱丽舍宫为法国总统府。此后的百余年里,历届法兰西共和国的总统几乎都在此工作和生活过。自1989年起,每逢9月份法国古堡节这一天,爱丽舍宫都向公众开放。(爱丽舍宫在每年9月份法国古堡节这一天向公众开放。)
 
  The Grand Canyon
  A famous American John Muir said in 1898: “The Grand Canyon … as unearthly in the color and grandeur and quantity of its architecture as if you had found it after death on some other star.”
  Like Muir, those of us who stand along the rim are prompted to wonder about the unearthliness and the forces that created and are still changing this place.
  After more than 100 years of studies, many things are still obscure. Today visitors come by the thousands - the great and simple of the earth - all in a spirit of marvel. Travelers come from every state of the Union, from every country in Europe and Asia, pilgrims to a shrine that is the same as the creed.
  From the depths of the canyon comes welling silence. Seldom can you hear the roar of the river. For all sounds are swallowed in this gulf of space. ‘It makes one want to murmur.’ A woman once whispered to her companion. This silence is not the silence of death; rather, it is a presence. It is like a great piece of music. But music made of man works up to a climax and ceases; the Grand Canyon is all climax, a chord echoing into eternity.
  Perhaps the most spectacular feature of the Grand Canyon, its Redwall limestone cliff, stands about half way up the chasm and is practically vertical. Its average height is 550 feet — almost exactly that of the Washington Monument. Though it is actually gray-blue limestone, the surface of the cliff has been stained to a sunset hue by iron salts washing out of the rocks. Above the Redwall come alternating layers of red sandstone and shale 1,000 feet thick, then comes the next pale-blue layer. The topmost layers are a yellowish limestone.
  Now, visitors to the South Rim alone may number 18,000 in a single day. Some of that number will travel by mule train down Bright Angel Trail to the canyon’s floor, cross the raging river by a suspension bridge and amount to the North Rim.
  Though the two rims face each other across only 12 miles, it is a journey of 214 miles by car from one to the other. Nor can you visit the North Rim except in summer; some 1,200 feet higher than the South Rim, it is snow covered much of the year except in July and August.
  But there is no day that you may not visit the South Rim and find the sun warm on your face and the air perfumed with the incense of smoke from an Indian hearth. The Grand Canyon is an unearthly sight. No wonder an American writer and journalist said, “I came here an atheist, and departed a devout believer.”
 
  科罗拉多大峡谷
  一位著名的美国人约翰·缪尔曾在1898年说过:“(科罗拉多河的)大峡谷……它的色彩和构造的宏伟多样是世上所无(绝无仅有)的,就像是人消亡以后在别的星球上发现的东西。”
  和缪尔一样,站在大峡谷边缘的人们顿时对这里的超凡脱俗,对那种创造并仍在改变这个地方的神奇力量感到惊奇。
  经过了100多年的研究,许多事情仍是不解之谜。今天,数以千记的游客——不管是普通人还是大人物——都怀着一种好奇的心情来到这里。他们来自于美国各州,来自于欧洲和亚洲的每一个国家,就像朝圣者一样虔诚地来到这座“神殿”。
  峡谷深处静寂无声。很少能听见河水的咆哮声。因为一切声音都在这深渊的空间被吞没了。一位女游客轻声对同伴说:“它让人禁不住低声细语。”这种寂静不是死一般的沉寂;相反,它是万物存在的宁静。它就像一曲伟大的乐章。人类创作的乐曲逐渐进入高潮,却也有终止的时候,而大峡谷则高潮迭起,是永远回荡不止的和音。
  也许,大峡谷最引人注目的风貌特色是“红墙”石灰石悬崖。它耸立在裂口半当中,几乎是垂直的。平均高度为550英尺——几乎和华盛顿纪念碑一样高。悬崖其实是灰蓝色的石灰石,但是从岩石里渗出的铁盐却将其表面染上了晚霞般的色彩。在“红墙”的上方,是红色的沙岩和1000英尺厚的页岩交替层,然后是浅蓝色的沙岩层,最上层是淡黄色的石灰石。
  现在,每天来大峡谷南缘观光的游客大概有18000名,其中有的会乘坐小型电动机车沿着“光明天使小道”来到谷底,穿过波涛汹涌的河道上方的吊桥,然后到达北缘。
  尽管南北两缘面对面相隔只有12英里,可是坐车从一边到另一边的距离却是214英里。北缘只能在夏天参观。它比南缘高出1200英尺左右;除了七八月外,其它大部分时间都为冰雪覆盖。
  然而,南缘任何时候都欢迎人们的来访。那里温暖的阳光照在人们的脸上;空气中弥漫着印第安香炉中散发出的烟香气。大峡谷是一道超凡脱俗的风景。难怪一位美国作家兼记者说:“我来这里时还是个无神论者,离开时却是个虔诚的信徒了。”
 
  Ecotourism
  Thinking about going off the beaten path1 for your next vacation? If so, you might be one of the many people who2 are enjoying a relatively new mode of travel known as ecotourism. As the name implies, ecotourism focuses on conserving the ecology and natural heritage of tourist destinations. In addition, ecotourism features indigenous cultures and promotes ways for local communities3 to control and maintain their resources.
  In the past, vacationers usually spent their time4 staying at luxury hotels and visiting famous landmarks5 and museums in cities such as New York, Paris and Tokyo. Others preferred to relax on the beautiful beaches of Hawaii or the deck of a cruise ship in the sunny Caribbean. 6 There was little interaction with the local people and overcrowding often spoiled the natural beauty of popular vacation spots. In addition, excessive commercialization turned many places into tourist traps.
  Since the early 1980s, however, adventure-oriented and nature-based vacation activities have become increasingly popular. Developing alongside a global rise in environmental consciousness and respect for cultural diversity, ecotourism is the one of the fastest growing sectors7 of the travel and tourism industry. Mountain climbing in the Himalayas roughing it8 on a wilderness expedition trekking in the Amazon rainforest and whale watching on the high seas9 are attractive alternatives to the urban comforts of five-star hotels and classy restaurants. 10
  But ecotourism means more than just traveling to remote destinations. The concept also emphasizes educating visitors about local people, customs and cultural heritage. Perhaps most importantly, it involves a methodical approach to tourism that minimizes the negative impact on natural habitats and gives host communities a leading role in decision-making processes, along with the lion’s share11 of economic benefits.
  As tourism might be the largest industry in the world, sustainable growth strategies should be adopted to ensure that our natural and cultural heritage is preserved for the enjoyment and benefit of future generations.
 
  生态观光
  不想在下个假期去人多的热门景点观光吧(想在下个假期去人迹罕至的地方看看吗)1?假使如此,你也许会像越来越多的人一样,2热衷于参加名为“生态观光”的新式旅游。正如名称所示,生态观光重在保护旅游目的地的生态和自然遗产。此外,生态观光突出了地方本土文化特色,并倡导一些可行的做法,促使地方3控制和维护这些资源。
  以前,许多度假者4会入住豪华宾馆,参观纽约、巴黎和东京等城市著名标志性建筑5和博物馆;还有些人喜欢在夏威夷的美丽海滩上放松身心,或是在邮轮甲板上,悠闲自在地游览阳光明媚的加勒比海(悠闲自得地沐浴加勒比海明媚的阳光)。6不论如何,总是缺乏与当地人的交流。而熙熙攘攘的人潮,也破坏了度假胜地的自然风光。此外,操作过分商业化,也让许多地方成了诱使游客上钩的陷阱。
  从二十世纪八十年代初起,以探险和自然为主题的旅游活动越来越受欢迎。伴随全球环保意识的增强以及对多元文化的尊重,生态观光方兴未艾,成为旅游业中快速发展的一个组成部分7。度假者可以享受都市里五星级酒店的舒适,可以品味高雅餐厅的宜人,而攀登喜玛拉雅山、徒步穿行亚马逊雨林、野地探险8、公海9赏鲸等,则成为另一种诱人选择。10(攀登喜玛拉雅山、徒步穿行亚马逊雨林、野地探险、公海赏鲸等,成为于都市里舒服享受五星级旅馆和高雅餐厅之外的诱人选择。)
  但是,生态观光不只是到偏远的地方旅行,这一概念也强调教育游客去认识当地风土人情和文化遗产。或许,最重要的观念是,生态观光是井然有序地经营旅游业,最大程度降低对生物栖息地的负面影响,并使当地除了获得最大的11经济利益外,还能在决策过程中取得主导地位。
  旅游、观光业可能是世界上最大的产业。为了子孙后代的福祉,必须采取可持续性发展战略,保护我们的自然和文化遗产。
 
  Ecotourism a Myth
  The United Nations has declared the year 2002 as the International Year of Ecotourism. The goals of this designation are lofty and the UN hopes to make environmental protection an integral part of tourism development. But the idea that tourism can be sustainable at all may be a myth. It may not be possible for struggling nations around the world to resist compromising their environment and their culture to lure affluent foreigners and their dollars.
  Many different organizations, governments, and businesses have defined ecotourism, but I especially like the definition adopted by the Estonian Ecotourism Association. This definition says, "Ecotourism is responsible travel, that conserves the natural and cultural heritage and contributes to the well-being of local communities."
  Some of the philosophies of ecotourism as outlined by the Estonian association include understanding the social carrying capacity of the area, understanding the ecological carrying capacity of the area, benefiting the local people, appropriate pricing strategies, building environmental costs into the prices of goods and services, and responsible marketing of tourist opportunities.
  Has experience shown that these goals are even remotely possible?
  Global tourism, while allowing some the opportunity to meet people, visit exotic environments, and understand cultures, provides billions of dollars to the corporations that are raping, polluting, and destroying the Earth, her people, and her animals. Of course there is ample corporate support for ecotourism efforts, and nations all over the world are getting help opening their doors to rampant consumerism and corporate takeover of every aspect of our world.
  The vast majority of tourists are not folks with sustainability and community building on their minds who stay with local families and respect local customs. The vast majority of tourists sail in on huge cruise ships or fly in to stay in large hotels and take advantage of local people.
  I think there needs to be a serious reality check done by ecotourism proponents about this idea that tourism will generate world peace and environmental harmony. What it does generate is deadly pollution, toxic chemicals and waste, the destruction of ecosystems, and the erosion of communities, turning local people into agents of the world's corporations.
  While I applaud the efforts of organizations around the world to change the damaging effects of tourism, encouraging more people to travel through ecotourism may just be contributing to the problem. And I support those compassionate individuals who travel to be with people, not to take advantage of them. But as long as we have leaders committed to a global economy bent on developing every inch of the globe, ecotourism efforts may be playing into the hands of global corporations.
  Possibly the best recommendation toward healing the tourism issues is to begin a worldwide effort to restore damaged cultures and twisted economies — and to ask people to just stay home.
 
  生态旅游,虚幻还是现实?
  联合国已宣布2002年为国际生态旅游年。这项规划,目标崇高,联合国希望把旅游发展与环境保护结合起来。然而,旅游能够依照可持续模式发展的想法,很可能毫无根据(是虚构的观点)。对世界上那些穷困国家而言,为了吸引大量外国游客和充裕外资,它们很难不危害到自己的环境和文化。
  许多不同性质的组织、政府和商业各界已为“生态旅游”下了定义,但我特别偏好“爱沙尼亚生态旅游协会”所做的诠释:生态旅游是负责任的旅游,它保护自然、文化遗产,并为当地造福。
  爱沙尼亚生态旅游协会列出了一些生态旅游的指导原则,包括应当考虑该区域社会的承载量及生态承载量、使当地居民受益、适当的价格定位策略、将环境成本纳入物品和服务的价格中,以及负责的旅游市场营销方式。
  然而,过去的经验是否向我们显示,这些目标是遥不可及的呢(实现这些目标的希望微乎其微呢)?
  全球旅游使人有机会接触不同民族、参观异国环境并了解不同的文化,同时却也为那些蹂躏、污染和破坏地球(包括住在地球上的人类和动物)的公司赚进数百亿美元。当然,也有很多公司支持生态旅游,世界各国都获得它们的帮助,向狂热的消费主义开放;紧接着,商业公司便接管我们生活中的方方面面。
  绝大多数游客,脑海里并没有持续发展的概念和社区观念,因而不会与当地家庭住在一起,尊重地方习俗;相反,游客绝大部分是登上巨大的游轮或乘飞机去观光地,住在大型旅馆里,占当地人的便宜。
  生态旅游倡导者认为,旅游可以为世界带来和平与环境和谐。我想,他们需要去确认一下真相究竟如何。其实,旅游带来的是致命的污染、有毒化学物质和废弃物、生态系统的毁坏、对地方的侵蚀,并且使当地人变成了世界各旅游公司的地方帮办。
  世界各地的组织都致力于改变旅游发展带来的破坏效应。我赞赏他们的努力,但他们鼓励更多的游客参与生态旅游的做法,却会恶化这一问题。我支持一些富有爱心的游客到各地旅行,和当地人真正相处在一起,而非占他们的便宜。但是,只要有政府领导人承诺发展全球经济,一心要开发地球的每一寸土地,那么,发展生态旅游的一切努力,就可能会为全球大公司玩于股掌之间(所操纵)。
  要解决旅游带来的各种问题,也许我能提供的最好建议是:开展一项世界性的运动,恢复遭到破坏的文化与扭曲的经济体,同时要求人们待在家里别出门。
 
  In Shanghai's Shadow
  Hong Kong Or Shanghai? There are few more predictable conversations around the dinner tables of SAR financial and government sorts than the perennial question of whether Hong Kong will be eclipsed by its northern competitor.1
  The official line in Hong Kong is that there is room enough2 for two Chinese financial centers. Economies like the United States support multiple centers serving specific industry clusters and regions. New York and Chicago compete and complement on each other at the same time, goes the reasoning. 3
  Hong Kong's advantage is its clean government, predictable, and international orientation. The city is wired into the overseas Chinese network by bonds of language and history, has its Guangdong industrial hinterland and will remain the international finance raising center of China even as Shanghai develops5 a far larger domestic finance base.4 and common law based legal environment
  On the “eclipse” side, the case is basically that every great trading port has its day. Just as the Venetian states and Liverpool fell off the trading map as the locus of trade and economic activity shifted, so Hong Kong’s “competitive advantage” has a narrow window. The decline might be relative, but Shanghai's industrial, entrepreneurial and political power means that must dominate6.
  Hong Kong well knows the advantage of critical mass over ambitious competitors that protest to try harder. It has had that relationship with Singapore for years. The southern city-state has ambitiously courted fund managers, chip markers and software vendors with subsidies and freebies, but Singapore continues to chase without seriously threatening Hong Kong’s Asian business hub status.
  Recently, through its rebranding efforts, Hong Kong is intending to differentiate the city in the minds of outsiders. That seems a bit silly, but harmless.
  In short, it doesn't matter whether Shanghai rules, as long as Hong Kong does what it does best, rather than ape what it believes a competitor such as Shanghai might do, if and when it becomes the dominant6 commercial Chinese city. 7 
 
  处在上海的阴影下?
  香港和上海,谁将胜出?香港特别行政区的金融界和政界人士聚餐谈论时,常常提到北面的竞争者上海是否会超越香港,使香港黯然失色,但这恐怕是最难预测前景的话题了。1
  香港官方人士认为,中国地域广阔,两个金融中心并存绰绰有余2理由是3,美国等一些经济大国扶持建立多个中心,以服务于特定的产业群和地区。纽约和芝加哥就是相互竞争但又互补。(纽约和芝加哥两个城市就是处于相互竞争,而又相互补充的关系。)
  香港的优势在于政府廉明(清廉/廉洁),法制环境以较为稳定的4习惯法为基础,城市面向际社会。香港借助语言和历史渊源(香港凭借语言和历史的纽带),与海外华人网络形成密切联系(融入到海外华人网络中),又有广东这一工业腹地,即使上海扩展5成为比香港规模更大的国内金融中心,香港仍将保持中国国际金融中心的地位。
  持上海将超越香港论调的人士,主要认为每个贸易大港都有全盛时期(辉煌时期)。就像威尼斯城邦和利物浦,随着贸易所在地和经济活动的迁移,这两个贸易港也从贸易地图上逐渐淡出了。香港也一样,其竞争优势前景有限。香港衰退也许是相对而言的,但上海在工业、企业家和政治上的实力意味着上海势必独占鳌头(占据优势地位。)6
  香港十分清楚,尽管许多竞争对手充满抱负,扬言要更加奋发图强(奋力一搏),但香港在诸多重要领域,仍占有优势。多年来,香港与新加坡就一直处于这种关系。南面的城市国家新加坡曾雄心勃勃,为投资经理、芯片开发人员和软件商提供津贴和其他优惠,来吸引这些人材(这个南面的城市国家曾经雄心勃勃,通过补贴和惠赠的方法,企业获得资金管理人才,芯片制造者和软件销售商)。新加坡仍在追赶香港,但始终没有严重威胁到其亚洲经济中心的地位。
  最近,香港致力于重塑城市形象,以期外人对香港有个崭新的看法。(香港最近在进行重新塑造自我形象的宣传活动,旨在使外人对香港有一个崭新的看法。)这看上去有点傻,倒也无碍。
  总之,倘若上海果真成了中国首屈一指的商业都市,只要香港一如既往地以其最佳方式行事,而不是模仿其所谓竞争对手上海可能采取的做法,那么上海即使占了上风(胜出/拔得头筹/取得支配地位6),也无关紧要了7
 
  Japan’s Tough Choice
  Japanese policymakers are in a real fix. They seem to have tried almost everything to deal with the persistent1 deflation in the world’s second-biggest economy but failed. Interest rates are close to zero. They have pumped trillions of yen into the economy—in fact they have issued so many government bonds that their credit rating is threatened. But deflation persists2. And so, it appears, the only thing left is devaluation. In December3, the yen weakened by 7% against the dollar. This month it fell still further, to \133.4 against the dollar4, a 39-month low, raising suspicions that devaluation is already government policy.
  Japan’s problems are acute indeed. The Nikkei stock market index stands at little more than a quarter of the level of its 1989 peak. The country has been5 in recession for the past year and national income is expected to shrink again this year. Industrial production withered by 13% in the year to November. Consumer prices, which have been falling5 since 1999, are expected to continue to decline this year. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, it appeared as if inflation was the only evil. But deflation comes with its own problems. For one6consumers hold off spending because they know their money will be worth more tomorrow7, making consumers even warier about spending, and demand falls again. In Japan, there are two other problems: real interest rates, that is interest rates after inflation8, become very high, and deflation swells an already heavy debt burden in real terms. .Demand falls. Companies lay off workers
  Japanese unemployment is at an historical high of 5.5%. On top of this, there is believed to be much hidden unemployment across the economy. The actions taken so far seem to have had little effect5. Japanese consumers have refused to increase their spending, and the Japanese savings rate remains among the highest in the world.
 
  日本政府的痛苦抉择
  日本决策者现在正是一筹莫展。这个世界上的第二经济大国,国内通货紧缩势头持续不减1。决策者似乎使尽了浑身解数:国内利率已调低近乎零,动用了上万亿日元以望拉动经济——其实,日本政府发行的政府债券数量繁多,政府信用级别面临很大的风险。可这一切都无济于事,通货紧缩仍不见好转2。如此看起来,这最后一招就剩下让日元贬值了。去年12月份3,日元对美元比率下降了7%,本月更是跌至133.44,是39个月来的最低谷,致使大家都怀疑日元贬值是日本政府早已制定的政策。
  日本面临的经济问题着实严重。目前,日经股指仅有1989年高峰期的四分之一强。过去一年,日本经济持续5衰退,预计今年国民收入将再次减少。工业产品到去年11月份已萎缩13%,消费物价指数自1999年以来一直下跌5,预计今年将继续下降。二十世纪七、八十年代,通货膨胀似乎是唯一严重的问题。但通货紧缩也带来了自身的问题。比如6消费者知道明天自己的钱会更值钱,就会持币不花7;需求下降。公司临时解雇工人,这使消费者花钱愈发小心翼翼,而需求进一步下降。日本政府还面临着另外两个问题,实质利率(即扣除通货膨胀率后的实际回报率8变得很高,同时通货紧缩使本已沉重的债务负担更重了。
  日本的失业率已高达5.5%,到了历史最高水平。另外,据信全国还有很多隐性的失业人数,而日本政府所采用的措施收效甚微。日本消费者已表示不愿意再多花一分钱,这使日本的储蓄率高居全球之首。
 
  George Soros—the Financial Crocodile
   “The US governs the international system to protect its own economy. It is not in charge of protecting other economies,” Soros says. “So when America goes into recession, you have anti-recessionary policies. When other countries are in recession, they don’t have the ability to engage in anti-recessionary policies because they can’t have a permissive monetary policy, because money would flee.” In person, he has the air of a philosophy professor rather than a gimlet-eyed financier. In a soft voice which bears the traces of his native Hungary, he argues that it is time to rewrite the so-called Washington consensus—the cocktail of liberalization, privatization and fiscal rectitude which the IMF has been preaching for 15 years. Developing countries no longer have the freedom to run their own economies, he argues, even when they follow perfectly sound policies. He cites Brazil, which although it has a floating currency and manageable public debt was paying ten times over the odds to borrow from capital markets.
  Soros credits the anti-globalization movement for having made companies more sensitive to their wider responsibilities. “I think [the protesters] have made an important contribution by making people aware of the flaws of the system,” he says. “People on the street had an impact on public opinion and corporations which sell to the public responded to that.” Because the IMF has abandoned billion dollar bailouts for troubled economies, he thinks a repeat of the Asian crisis is unlikely. The fund’s new “tough love” policy—for which Argentina is the guinea pig—has other consequences. The bailouts were a welfare system for Wall Street, with western taxpayers rescuing the banks from the consequences of unwise lending to emerging economies. Now the IMF has drawn a line in the sand, credit to poor countries is drying up. “It has created a new problem—the inadequacy of the flow of capital from center to the periphery,” he says.
  The one economy Soros is not losing any sleepabout is the US. “I am much more positive about the underlying economy than I am about the market, because we are waging war not only on terrorism but also on recession,” he says. “I have not yet seen an economy in recession when you are gearing up for war.” He worries that the world’s largest economic power is not living up to its responsibilities. “I would like the United States to live up to the responsibilities of its hegemonic power because it is not going to give up its hegemonic power,” he says. “The only thing that is realisticis for the United States to become aware that it is in its enlightened self-interest to ensure that the rest of the world benefits from their role.”
 
  金融大鳄乔治·索罗斯
  索罗斯说:“美国管理国际经济体系,是为了保护本国经济,并不负责保护其他国家的经济。美国经济一旦陷入衰退,可以出台反衰退政策,而其他国家经济衰退1,却无力这样做,因为这些国家不能采取自由的货币政策,否则资本就会外流。”索罗斯本人具有哲学教授的风度,不太像目光敏锐的金融家。说话轻声细语,略带匈牙利口音,认为修改所谓的“华盛顿共识”正当其时。“华盛顿共识”是指经济自由化、私人化和财政透明的综合体制;这一体制国际货币基金组织已倡导了15年。索罗斯认为,发展中国家即便贯彻了完善健全的经济政策,也不再能自由地控制本国经济。他举例说,巴西实行了浮动汇率制和可控国债,却付出比正常情况高出10倍的代价从资本市场借贷。
  索罗斯赞扬反全球化运动使各公司更加认识到自己更广泛的责任。他说:“我认为反对者功不可没,让人们意识到这一体制有缺陷。普通民众对公众舆论产生了重要影响,而公司以大众为销售对象,对此也做出了反应。”国际货币基金组织不再提供10亿美元援助经济困难的国家,索罗斯因此认为亚洲金融危机不可能重现。国际货币基金组织这种“又严又爱”的政策(阿根廷是这一政策的试验品)产生了别的后果:西方纳税人挽救了银行,将其从盲目向新兴工业国家提供贷款的恶果中解脱出来,而资金援助成为华尔街提供福利的方法。如今国际货币基金组织就好像是在沙滩上划了一条分界线,向贫困国家提供的贷款日益枯竭。索罗斯说:“这产生了新问题,即资金从中心向周边流动不足。”
  索罗斯唯对美国经济高枕无忧。他说:“我对美国经济潜力的信心比对市场更足。我们不只向恐怖主义开战,也向经济衰退开战。我还没见过哪个国家全力备战时经济停滞不前。”他担心世界上最大的经济强国不能尽到责任,说道:“我希望美国承担起其霸权应承担的责任,因为美国不会放弃霸权地位。美国应该意识到,美国自身要获得利益,就必须保证其他国家从其扮演的角色中受益。这是唯一的现实。”
 
  Converting the Masses Starbucks in China
  It sounds like Mission Impossible:Sell coffee to China’s tea drinkers. Starbucks’ solution is to select high-profile locations1 on the busiest streets,where stores are sure to se duce the see-and-be-seen set2.
  As Starbucks launches an aggressive expansion in China,a coffee frontier steeped in nearly 5000 years of tea3. The goal:to build hip hang-outs that tap into a new taste for China’s emerging middle class.4
  Starbucks China doesn’t plan any advertising,promotions,or other marketing strategies,aside from sponsoring an on-line coffee club and the occasional office-tower coffee tasting.Insteadthe company is counting on selecting such high-visibilityhigh-traffic cafe locations that they market themselves.Its main advertising medium is the store itself5.
  But in fast-changing Chinese cities,finding locations that will embody the right lifestyle is more akin to gambling than science6. The computerized mapping databases that the company uses to test a potential street corner in the United States would be little help in Chinese cities. Starbucks also faces an uphill battle. Local media reported that 70% of people they surveyed would rather not see the chain in Beijing’s Forbidden City. And even for middle-class Chinese,Starbucks is a barely affordable luxury.While retailers say a top marketing weapon in urban China is to charge more for public consumption. That’s because Chinese customers have different priorities than their American yuppie counterparts. Guys 40 years old are not coffee drinkers,but if the environment is good and the coffee is not bad,they’ll come back. The store layoutartwork and food options make Starbucks more friendly to Chinese eyes7but 8coffee remains the core offering and people don’t go there for the coffee. They go there to present themselves as modern Chinese in a public setting.
 
  星巴克强力吸引中国消费者
  向中国的饮茶人兜售咖啡,听起来像是不可能完成的任务(天方夜潭)。而星巴克的招数是选择繁华街道的黄金地段1(醒目地点),在那儿咖啡店一定会吸引那些爱凑热闹的人2
  随着星巴克在中国开拓市场的强劲势头,具有近5000年历史的中国茶文化就渗透了来自咖啡王国的浓香3 (咖啡先锋浸入拥有近5000年茶文化历史的中国)。目标是把星巴克建成时新的常去的场所,吸引中国新兴中产阶级品尝新的口味4(开发新的口味来迎合中国新兴的中产阶级)。
  除了在网上主办咖啡俱乐部及偶尔在写字楼提供咖啡品尝活动外,星巴克在中国不打算进行任何广告宣传、促销活动,也不打算实施其他的营销策略。相反,星巴克公司依靠选择那种显眼的、交通发达的咖啡店店址来做自我宣传;星巴克最主要的宣传媒介是咖啡店本身5(相反,星巴克公司依靠的是咖啡店的选址,交通便利的醒目地址便是其最主要的宣传手段)。
  然而,在变化莫测(变化飞快)的中国大城市找到能体现适当生活方式的地方,与其说是一种科学的经营理念,倒不如说是一场赌博6(很像是一场赌博而不大像是科学经营手段)。在美国,该公司利用计算机处理的地图数据库探寻潜在街角,但这种做法在中国城市却没有多大用处。同时,星巴克也面临着一场攻艰战。据当地媒体报道,70%的接受调查者不同意星巴克在北京的紫禁城开连锁店。即使对中国的中产阶层而言,星巴克咖啡也是一种勉强能消费得起的奢侈品。
  不过,零售商们却说,在中国城市营销的一个最强有力的武器就是对大众消费品制定高价格,原因是中国消费者的侧重点与美国的雅皮士们不同。40岁的中国人几乎不喝咖啡,但如果环境优雅、咖啡味道又不差,他们还会成为回头客。虽然咖啡仍是星巴克咖啡店的主题,但店内的布局、艺术品的摆放以及可供选择的各色食品比咖啡本身更令中国人着迷,而且人们光顾星巴克并不为了喝咖啡,而是为了在公共场合有机会表明自己是时尚的中国人。(星巴克咖啡店的布置、艺术作品及食品供应吸引着中国人的眼球78咖啡还是主要供应品,而且人们光顾星巴克不是为了喝咖啡,而是在公共场合炫耀自己是新潮的中国人)。
 
  NASDAQ
  NASDAQ, acronym for the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation system, is one of the largest markets in the world for the trading of stocksincluding the New York StockNYSE and the American Stock Exchange AMEX3. The majority of companies listed on NASDAQ are smaller than most of those on the NYSE and AMEX. NASDAQ has become known as the home of new technology companies, particularly computer and computer-related businesses. Trading on NASDAQ is initiated by stock brokers acting on behalf of their clients. The brokers negotiate with market makers who concentrate on trading specific stocks4 to reach a price for the stock. Exchange .1 The number of companies listed on NASDAQ is more than2 that on any of the other stock exchanges in the United States
  Unlike other stock exchanges, NASDAQ has no central location where trading takes place. Instead5, its market makers are located all over the country and make trades by telephone and via the Internet. Because brokers and market makers trade stocks directlyinstead of on the floor of a stock exchange, NASDAQ is called an over-the-counter market. The term over-the-counter refers to the direct nature of the trading, as in a store where goods are handed over a counter.
  Since its inception in l97l, the NASDAQ Stock Market has been the innovator. As the world’s first electronic stock market, NASDAQ long ago set a precedent fortechnological trading innovation that is unrivaled, the NASDAQ Stock Market is the market of choice for business industry leaders worldwide. By providing an efficient environment for raising capital NASDAQ has helped thousands of companies achieve their desired growth and successfully make the leap into public ownership7.6. Now poised to become the world’s first truly global market
 
  纳斯达克
  纳斯达克(NASDAQ)是全美证券交易协会自动报价系统的首字母缩写。它是当今世界上最大的股票交易市场之一1(作为全世界最大的股票交易市场之一的纳斯达克(NASDAQ)是全美证券交易协会自动报价系统的英文首字母缩写。列入纳斯达克名下的上市公司比美国任何一家证券交易所名下的公司都要多2,这其中包括纽约证券交易所(NYSE)和美国证券交易所(AMEX3。(纳斯达克(NASDAQ)名下的上市公司在数量上超过了包括纽约证券交易所(NYSE)和美国证券交易所(AMEX)在内的任何一家美国证券交易所。)与纽约证券交易所(NYSE)和美国证券交易所(AMEX)的多数上市公司相比,在纳斯达克(NASDAQ)上市的大多数公司规模较小。纳斯达克(NASDAQ)已经成为新技术公司——尤其是计算机和与计算机相关的行业——的基地。纳斯达克(NASDAQ)的交易是通过代表客户利益的股票经纪人发起的。这些经纪人与主要从事特定股票买卖的市场期票出票人进行协商以确定股票的价格4(他们为确定股票的价格与市场期票出票人进行协商,这些期票出票人主要是买卖特定的股票。)
  与其他证券交易所不同,纳斯达克没有专门的中心场所进行股票交易,而代之以5遍布全美的市场期票出票人;他们通过电话和国际互联网进行交易。(与其他证券交易有所不同,纳斯达克(NASDAQ)没有股票交易的中心交易场所。它的市场期票出票人遍及全美各地,通过电话和国际互联网进行交易。)由于股票交易是由经纪人和市场期票出票人直接进行,而不是在股票交易大厅内进行的,因此,纳斯达克(NASDAQ)被称为买卖双方直接交易市场。该术语指出了其交易的直接性,就如同在商店柜台直接进行商品的买卖一样。
  自1971年诞生之日起,纳斯达克(NASDAQ)股票市场就成了产业的革新者。作为世界上第一家电子股票交易市场,纳斯达克(NASDAQ)早就史无前例地进行了技术交易的创新6(很久以前纳斯达克就技术交易的革新开创了先例,这一点无人能敌。)现在,纳斯达克(NASDAQ)已稳稳地成为世界第一家真正意义上的全球股票交易市场,是全球产业界领袖的首选市场。通过提供一个有效的融资环境,纳斯达克(NASDAQ)已经帮助了成百上千家公司完成了其市值的预期增长,同时也成功地、跨越式地实现了公司股权的公众所有。
 
  The American Experts on Tips of Investing in Bear Market
  Amid all the hammerings investors have endured since early 2000, the market plunge after September’s terrorist attacks would seem to qualify as a bottom.
  Trouble is, no one ever knows until much later when the market has reached its nadir. False bottoms and bear market rallies have trapped investors since time immemorial.
  Capitulations don’t occur in every market cycle. Of the ten bear markets since World War II, eight ended in a whimper, with the market steadily trending lower and no selling crescendo, says Lisa Kammert, U.S. equity market analyst at Birinyi Associates. Finally a bull market sets in. The 1990-91 market slump fits that pattern.
  And bull markets aren’t a guarantee even when there is a capitulation. Following a two-day, 25% selloff in October 1929, the market seemed to recover and then spent another three years falling apart all over again. It took a quarter-century to recover lost ground. A similarly frustrating thing took place in the 1970s. A cathartic selloff in 1974 was followed by a quick recovery and then years of blah performance.
  The seers are blind. Economists have failed to call a single recession in the past four decades. A November 1989 National Association for Business Economists survey found them at their most optimistic in a decade, predicting clear sailing for at least three years. Eight months later a recession arrived.
  Investors must wrestle with internal demons to time the market right. We are by nature momentum investors. We try to prepare for the future by extrapolating from the present, says Jeffrey Heisler, a Boston University professor who specializes in the impact of individual behavior on markets.
  A price decline does not in itself make a good value. If a rebate offer lets you get a $33,000 sedan for only $30,000, you’ve got yourself a good deal. But discounted stocks aren’t necessarily a bargain. Nor does the fact that they were higher before make them particularly likely to go up now.
  On the positive side, the calendar suggests we’re due for a turnaround. The bear market that began for the Dow in January 2000 is now the third longest since World War II. Only the 1,111-day bear market of 1946-49 was appreciably longer than the current 654-day one; the 1973-74 bear market lasted 694 days. In fact, by the time the media fills with warnings of recession, as it has in recent weeks, the worst has usually passed, says InvesTech’s Stack.
  Despite all, you can take advantage of a bear market. You don’t have to be a market seer to take losses. Just have some plan for selling losers and reinvesting immediately in comparable, but not identical, stocks or funds. The tax collector will share your pain.
  If you end up with a $50,000 capital loss, only $3,000 of it can be used annually to offset salary and interest income, but the other $47,000 doesn’t go to waste. It is carried forward to offset capital gains in your other holdings two, three or ten years hence.
  You can profit by buying and holding for a long time. Don’t put much stock in short-term speculations. Buy stocks with a 20-year investing horizon, and have realistic expectations for them. Vanguard founder John Bogle suggests 8% a year as a reasonable return.
 
  美国投资专家谈熊市投资技巧
  纵观投资者2000年初以来经历的各种冲击,9月恐怖袭击后出现的股市暴跌堪称冲击之最。问题是,直至股市已跌至谷底很久之后人们才意识到它的发生。投资者落入谷底假象和熊市止跌回升的陷阱久已有之。
  股市周期并不总会出现抛售高潮。比里尼同仁公司美国股市分析家莉萨·卡默特说,二战以来共出现过10次熊市,其中8次最终在抱怨声中结束;股市仍继续朝着跌势发展,没有出现抛售高潮。最终,牛市到来。1990年至1991年间的股市下跌就以这种模式发生。
  即使出现抛售高潮,也不能保证出现牛市。1929年10月29日,连续两天暴跌25%之后,股市似乎开始回升,随后又过了3年时间,股市再次彻底崩溃。此后用了25年时间股市才渐渐恢复元气。20世纪70年代出现类似的令人沮丧的情况。1974年股市一再暴跌,随后又迅速恢复,接着一连数年表现平平。
  预言者是盲目的。40年来,经济学家未能准确预测过一次经济衰退。1989年11月,全国企业界经济学家联合会的一项调查表明,经济学家对经济前景的乐观态度为10年之最,认为至少会有3年大好时光。可是,8个月后就出现了衰退。
  投资者必须战胜自我,克服个人陋习,抓住市场机会。我们生来都是趋势投资者。专门研究个人行为对股市影响的波士顿大学教授杰弗里·海斯勒说,我们千方百计根据现在推测未来,为日后做准备。
  股价下跌本身并不创造高价值。如果一辆33000美元的轿车打折,你只花30000美元就买下了,那么你就做了一桩便宜买卖。但是,股票打折并不一定是好事。以前的价格高也不一定意味着现在极有可能升值。
  从积极的角度看,时间表明我们即将面临转机的到来。2000年1月道指开始的熊市现在已成为第二次世界大战以来持续时间之长位居第三的熊市。只有1946年至1949年的历时1111天的熊市、1973年至1974年持续了694天的熊市明显长于目前已经长达654天的熊市。投资技术公司的斯塔克说,事实上当媒体充斥衰退警告时,最糟糕的情况往往已经过去了。
  无论如何,可以利用熊市。你不一定要为承受损失者制定某种计划。立即对类似但不是单一的股票或基金进行重新投资。收税人会与你共同承担痛苦。
  如果你最终损失了5万美元的资本,那么其中每年只有3000美元可用于补偿工资和利息收入,而其余的47000美元没有浪费。它用于补偿你三年或十年间其它股票的资本收益。
  选择长期持股。不要把很多股票用于短期投机。持有股票20年,对股票回报要持有切合实际的期望值。先锋公司创始人约翰·博格尔建议,8%的年回报率是比较合理的。
 
  Modified Agricultural Practices 1
  Since agriculture accounts for nearly 70 percent of the world’s fresh water withdrawn from rivers, lakes, and underground aquifers for human use, the greatest potential for conservation lies with increasing irrigation efficiency1. By reducing irrigation by 10 percent, we could double 2the amount available for domestic water worldwide. This can be done by converting to water-conserving irrigation systems; taking the poorest and steepest lands out of production3; switching to less-thirsty crops (which may require changes to government subsidies for certain crops); implementing proper agricultural land drainage and soil management practices, and reducing fertilizer and pesticide use.4
  Typically, governments provide water to large commercial farmers at greatly subsidized rates, decreasing the need for conservation and promoting wasteful practices, leaks out of pipes, or evaporates before reaching fields. Although some of the water lost in inefficient irrigation systems returns to streams or aquifers where it can be tapped again water quality is invariably degraded by pesticides fertilizers and salts7. This is in fact another way that commercial agriculture “uses” water: by polluting it so that it is no longer safe to drink. In areas where commercial agriculture is prevalent, runoff 8from farms has poisoned water supply with dangerous levels of toxics.95. This has led to widespread use of wasteful irrigation systems6. Studies show that just 35-50 percent of water withdrawn for irrigated agriculture actually reaches the crops. Most soaks into the ground through unlined canals
 
  改良的农业耕作
  从全世界河流、湖泊和地下蓄水层汲取的供人类使用的淡水中,有近70%是用于农业,因此节水的最大潜力在于提高农业灌溉效率1。减少10%的灌溉用水,我们就能够使世界各地的家庭用水量增加12(翻一番)。我们可以改用节水的灌溉系统,停止耕种(停止使用)3最贫瘠、最陡峭的土地,再种植耗水量较低的植物(这可能会要求改变政府对某些农作物的津贴额);采取适当的农业土地排水及土壤管理办法;减少化肥和杀虫剂的使用4
  通常(一般而言),政府以很高的津贴优惠向大户的商业性农民供水,5就削弱了节水的必要性,鼓励了浪费行为。这种做法已导致农民广泛使用浪费水资源的灌溉设备(农民对浪费性的灌溉设备的广泛使用)6。研究表明,农业灌溉用水中只有35~50%真正用在农作物上。大部分的水通过沒有铺衬里的灌溉渠道浸入土壤,或从水管泄漏出来,或在到达农田之前就蒸发掉了。尽管从低效的灌溉系统中损失的部分水,会重新返回可再次利用的(可再次抽取的)河流或地下蓄水层中,但其水质因杀虫剂、化肥和盐份的渗入却不可避免地下降了7。这实际上就是商业性农业“使用”水的另一种方式:对水造成污染,使水无法再安全饮用。在商业性农业盛行的地区,从农田中流出的水8已经污染生活供水,使得水中的有毒物质达到危险的程度从农田中流出的水由于含有达到危险程度的有毒物质使得生活供水受到污染)9

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